That is especially true for my predictions. At ISTE, Adobe Education Evangelist Jesse Lubinsky told me he thought the New York Knicks would acquire Brooklyn Nets Forward Mikal Bridges. My response was that the Knicks would probably make few moves this offseason. Minutes after this conversation, we learned the Knicks acquired Bridges from the Nets.
Having established the value of predictions, we should consider recent arguments that the βAIβ bubble is about to burst. Beyond OpenAI CEO Mira Murati admitting, βInside the labs, we have these capable models and you know theyβre not that far ahead of what the public has access to for free,β we are seeing experts say the bubble is about to burst. One entity with a cold, rational perspective thinks so (see below).
Recent Media Saying The βAIβ Bubble Will Soon Burst Or That βAIβ Has Had No Impact
Adam Conover and Ed Zitron
I have long enjoyed Adam Conover of Adam Ruins Everything, Factually, and The G Word With Adam Conover. He recently spoke about the βAIβ bubble with Ed Zitron of Better Offline and Where's Your Ed At?
Conoverβs introductory monologue perfectly summarizes the current state of βAI:β
The video or podcast is worth your time to learn about the current state of βAI.β
The Goldman Sachs Report
At the end of June, Goldman Sachs released a report, βGen AI: too much spend too little benefit?β
While Drs Timnit Gebru, Margaret Mitchell, Emily M. Bender, and other experts are motivated by concerns about bias and environmental racism, Goldman Sachs is motivated by βAIβsβ ability to make a profit.
Two quotes from the report stand out:
βGiven the focus and architecture of generative AI technology today... truly transformative changes wonβt happen quickly and fewβif anyβwill likely occur within the next 10 years.β - MIT professor Daron Acemoglu.
βAI technology is exceptionally expensive, and to justify those costs, the technology must be able to solve complex problems, which it isnβt designed to do.β - Goldman Sachsβ head of global equity research Jim Covello.
Write-ups of the report worth reading include:
Pop Culture by Ed Zitron for Whereβs Your Ed At?, July 8, 2024.
Goldman Sachs: AI Is Overhyped, Wildly Expensive, and Unreliable by Jason Koebler for 404, July 12, 2024.
Other βAIβ Bubble Voices
Another voice motivated by profit, MicroStrategy research firm founding partner James Ferguson, said on the Merryn Talks Money podcast, βAI still remains, I would argue, completely unprovenβ¦And fake it till you make it may work in Silicon Valley, but for the rest of us, I think once bitten twice shy may be more appropriate for AI.β
Listen to the episode here.
Writer Charlie Warzel wrote in The Atlantic:
βAn important thing to realize about the grandest conversations surrounding AI is that, most of the time, everyone is making things up.1 This isnβt to say that people have no idea what theyβre talking about or that leaders are lying. But the bulk of the conversation about AIβs greatest capabilities is premised on a vision of a theoretical future. It is a sales pitch, one in which the problems of today are brushed aside or softened as issues of now, which surely, leaders in the field insist, will be solved as the technology gets better.β
The Economist wrote on July 2, 2024: βSo far the technology has had almost no economic impactβ¦Beyond Americaβs west coast, there is little sign AI is having much of an effect on anything.β
Reading about this potential βAIβ bubble has a song playing repeatedly in my head.
I Have Questions
These recent voices sound very different from what I heard about βAIβ at ISTE 2024. I have questions:
If βAIβ is a bubble, are K-12 teachers doing students a disservice by not training them how to use it?
Why is teaching children how to use βAIβ K-12 teachersβ responsibility?
ISTE had 252 sessions about βAI.β Considering its minimal impact and unprofitability, should conferences cap the percentage of βAIβ sessions?
How do we refocus on pedagogy if the βAIβ bubble bursts?
Continuing The Conversation
What do you think? How is your school preparing to refocus on pedagogy if the βAIβ bubble bursts? Comment below or Tweet me at @TomEMullaney.
Does your school or conference need a tech-forward educator who critically examines AI and pedagogy? Reach out on Twitter or email mistermullaney@gmail.com.
Post Image: The blog post image is by Lanju Fotografie on Unsplash.
AI Disclosure:
I wrote this post without the use of any generative AI. That means:
I developed the idea for the post without using generative AI.
I wrote an outline for this post without the assistance of generative AI.
I wrote the post from the outline without the use of generative AI.
I edited this post without the assistance of any generative AI. I used Grammarly to assist in editing the post. I have Grammarly GO turned off.
There are no generative AI-generated images in this post.
Bold formatting was added by Tom.
In my opinion, and my use cases, I use AI to help rework my pedagogy and give me new ways to deliver material or connect ideas. The predictive nature of words is what I need here. My biggest use cases are how do I take this boring lesson and teach it in a new engaging way for my students. I think that use cases like this will do perfectly fine at surviving a bubble burst. Now, any teacher who is automating anything using ai will certainly struggle if the bubble bursts.